Monthly

The economic views after the primary elections

August 2015

The results of the primaries (PASO) suggest that Scioli has strengthened its position as the front runner for the presidential election, though the race remains open while several issues could have an impact on the October results. First, a quick look at the facts.

The politics take center stage: What’s in a Vice President?

July 2015

The big news was the announcement of the vice-presidential candidates in both tickets. While everybody knew that Cristina was going to appoint the one in Scioli’s ticket, and that the chosen would be someone who is ideologically close to her, everybody was surprised when it became known it was Carlos Zannini. He has...

Three scenarios for the next two years

June 2015

We are reaching crucial times on the political front, as on June 20th we will finally know the presidential candidates and their running mates. The suspense is coming to an end. It seems pretty clear that the two leading candidates continue to be Scioli and Macri, while Massa continuous to lose steam and has basica...

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

May 2015

The election season is now under full swing. Macri scored victories in the city de of Buenos Aires and in Mendoza, while Scioli is consolidating its leading position within the official Peronist party (FPV) that won in Rio Negro and in Salta. At the moment, it looks that the election is heading towards a two man rac...

How to get rid of the “cepo”

April 2015

The economy once again provided some positive surprises as the exchange rates remained stable, inflation slowed down, and there was a big rally in the price of Argentine bonds and stocks. All these took place in spite of the lack of economic growth and the difficulties to avoid further drops in international reserve...

Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap

March 2015

Will in the end be a presidential race between Macri and Scioli? The most recent polls are indicating that this is likely to be the case, as Scioli is strengthening its stance in the official camp, the FPV, while Macri is gaining ground.

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

February 2015

As the Kirchner administration enters into its final year, the economic team appears to have made several strategic decisions that will have key effects on economic developments. These decisions should be seen as part of a broad political agenda in which the Government’s main objective is to preserve its imag...

The truth behind the exchange rate

January 2015

The year ends on a strange note: while the EM world is in turmoil and the currencies are depreciating everywhere, Argentina has managed to stabilize the parallel exchange rate and insists in keeping the official exchange rate quasi-fixed in an effort to control inflation. The question at this stage is whether this s...

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

December 2014

International reserves are now at center stage once more. Creative accounting, short-term borrowing and the postponement of the payment of imports have helped to increase the headline figure to around USD 29 billion. Just without these gimmicks they would only be USD 22 billion. The market players, for reasons th...

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

November 2014

In the last months, there were marked cycles in the evolution of the blue exchange rate, in which it first entered in “panic mode” generating headlines of a runaway depreciation that in the end did not happen, as was the case in mid-October when the currency started an appreciating trend. This pattern has been the r...

Monthly Reports

The economic views after the primary elections

The economic views after the primary elections

The politics take center stage: What’s in a Vice President?

The politics take center stage: What’s in a Vice President?

Three scenarios for the next two years

Three scenarios for the next two years

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

How to get rid of the “cepo”

How to get rid of the “cepo”

Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap

Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

The truth behind the exchange rate

The truth behind the exchange rate

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

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