Monthly

The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race

October 2023

Massa was the big winner in the general election and appears to be the front runner in a runoff that is likely to be very tight. The fact that he came in the first position with 37% of the votes was a surprise, as most pollsters were expecting Milei to lead, but he ended in the second place and only managed to maint...

2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible

September 2023

The economic situation continues to deteriorate, and it is now clear that whoever wins the general elections will have a colossal challenge in December. He or she will have to deal with an extremely fragile situation including a high and probably rising rate of inflation, the need to devalue to reduce the FX spread,...

The PASO primaries changed the electoral outlook

August 2023

The primary elections came with many surprises. The big winner was Javier Milei, who was in the radar and was thought to be competitive, though nobody expected that he would end in first place and obtain 30% of the votes. Rodriguez Larreta was the big loser, as he lost badly the primary to Patricia Bullrich, who is ...

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is Still the Name of the Game

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is St...

July 2023

The economic discussions have been dominated by the day-to-day developments in the negotiations between Argentina and the IMF. The other key piece of analysis is on the impact that the primaries (the PASO) might have on key variables such as the parallel exchange rate, inflation, the country risk and on overall fina...

What has changed with the announcement of the presidential candidates?

June 2023

We now know the candidates that will compete in the primaries (the paso) in August, the first big step in the electoral race. The Peronists, after some internal discussions and an indication that the kirchnerist Wado de Pedro would lead the ticket, have changed their mind, and decided to go with Finance Minister ...

The Lack of International Reserves is Reaching a Critical Point

May 2023

The macroeconomic problems remain the same. Policy dilemmas have not changed, but the situation is rapidly deteriorating, and the outcomes remain uncertain. The government’s unwillingness to tackle the critical policy problems, perhaps hoping that the bleeding of reserves would miraculously come to an end or that in...

New Challenges on the Exchange Rate and Inflation Fronts

April 2023

The macroeconomic situation is deteriorating rapidly in Argentina. There is little chance to imagine that it can improve on the way to the elections. The pressing problem is the lack of reserves, which is a direct consequence of a grossly overvalued currency and the inability to control the spread between the ...

Washington… we have some problems

March 2023

Events are taking place at high speed. The severe drought, probably the worst in six decades, is creating new challenges for economic policies. Exports are likely to drop by over USD 20 billion and it remains unclear how the Central Bank will manage a drastic shortage of dollars. But the story does not e...

Politics and economics: the two-way highway

February 2023

Is it the economy? Is it politics? The chicken or the egg? This is the question today in Argentina, where there is a debate regarding which is the biggest obstacle to turn around an economy that has been stagnating for more than a decade. Obviously, a switch towards better economic policies is necessary, but t...

Similarities and differences between 2015 and 2023

January 2023

If we could go back in time and try to find a year that looks like 2023 the answer is pretty obvious: 2015. It was the last year of the Kirchner administration, which was struggling to get to the presidential elections in one piece. It was fighting a man-to-man battle to defend reserves and avoid devalua...

Monthly Reports

The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race

The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race

2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible

2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible

The PASO primaries changed the electoral outlook

The PASO primaries changed the electoral outlook

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is Still the Name of the Game

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is St...

What has changed with the announcement of the presidential candidates?

What has changed with the announcement of the presidential candidates?

The Lack of International Reserves is Reaching a Critical Point

The Lack of International Reserves is Reaching a Critical Point

New Challenges on the Exchange Rate and Inflation Fronts

New Challenges on the Exchange Rate and Inflation Fronts

Washington… we have some problems

Washington… we have some problems

Politics and economics: the two-way highway

Politics and economics: the two-way highway

Similarities and differences between 2015 and 2023

Similarities and differences between 2015 and 2023

Recommended