Monthly

High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

November 2020

The change of guard in the United States is unlikely to change significantly foreign policy towards Argentina. We do not expect softening policies in the IMF as a result. There could be some benefit from a weaker dollar and therefore a rise in the price of commodities. Soybeans have surged in the last months and are...

The Wrong Treatment for the Wrong Diagnosis

October 2020

As time goes by the economy seems to be getting deeper into a hole: the government continues to be haunted by the record levels of the alternative exchange rates, the persistent drop in international reserves and the increase in the country risk as measured by the EMBI. In the meantime, the sanitary situation ...

Old Recipes for Old Problems

September 2020

On the back of the debt exchange the government had an opportunity to jumpstart the economy. But Argentina is the country that never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The government was expecting that the deal would be a turning point, which in turn would help to reduce the spread with the blue-chip swap...

Good Bye Debt, Hello IMF

August 2020

Finally, and just when the negotiations appeared to be falling apart, the government announced an agreement with the three main groups of bondholders that should lead to a successful restructuring of the sovereign debt. By the time these groups agreed, roughly 40% of the bondholders had already accepted the of...

Waiting For An Economic Script

July 2020

The government finally seems to be approaching an agreement with the main bondholders on the debt and it is also relaxing the lockdown. The big question now is how the economy will perform in the new environment, as the economic challenges are still enormous and the policy tools limited.

Surfing the Covid-19 and the Debt Restructuring

May 2020

While many Asian and European countries are slowly returning to normal, the focal point of the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted to the Americas. The United States’ economy has buckled under the sanitary crisis with over 25 million jobs lost in two months and unemployment reaching Great Depression levels, amid ongoing c...

Deficit, Debt & Inflation: A 2020 vision

April 2020

The sanitary emergency caused by the novel Coronavirus has thrown the world into disarray, crashing international markets and putting governments to the test. To face the inevitable recession, most developed countries have announced historical fiscal and monetary stimulus packages. Their Latin American counterparts,...

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

March 2020

After two weeks of gradually ramping up social distancing measures, on March 19th President Fernández announced a nationwide mandatory quarantine. Although the quarantine ends on March 31st (coincidentially the set deadline for the debt restructuration) the evidence from Asia and Europe suggests it may be necessary ...

The Debt Negotiations Are Heating Up

February 2020

The debt saga started with the Province of Buenos Aires (PBA), which faced the maturity of the BP21 (NY law) for USD 250 million at the end of Jan-20. The province tried to defer the payment from January to May. Despite sweetening the original offer and extending the deadline to accept the deferral several times, PB...

Public Debt: Waiting for the government to put first gear

January 2020

The initial steps of the Fernandez administration have sent positive signals to the financial markets, as the increases in taxes and the expected reductions in social security expenditures show that the government has the willingness to pay, while the fact that the Treasury has continued to service the debt in spite...

Monthly Reports

High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

The Wrong Treatment for the Wrong Diagnosis

The Wrong Treatment for the Wrong Diagnosis

Old Recipes for Old Problems

Old Recipes for Old Problems

Good Bye Debt, Hello IMF

Good Bye Debt, Hello IMF

Waiting For An Economic Script

Waiting For An Economic Script

Surfing the Covid-19 and the Debt Restructuring

Surfing the Covid-19 and the Debt Restructuring

Deficit, Debt & Inflation: A 2020 vision

Deficit, Debt & Inflation: A 2020 vision

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

The Debt Negotiations Are Heating Up

The Debt Negotiations Are Heating Up

Public Debt: Waiting for the government to put first gear

Public Debt: Waiting for the government to put first gear

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