Monthly

Monthly Reports

The elections, the economy, and the inevitability of the adjustment

September 2021
The results of the primary elections (PASO) were surprising. Mainly because the government lost by ten percentage points at the national level and in the crucial province of Buenos Aires by almost five percentage points.  If the results end up being similar in the actual mid-term elections on November 14th, it ...

The economy and the elections: playing poker with no aces?

July 2021
The electoral calendar is moving ahead, and soon we will know the candidates for the primaries that will take place on September 12th.  These elections are important. They should decide whether the government can get closer to having a majority in the Lower House, a situation that would allow to pass laws in Co...

A Soft Transition to the Elections: The Calm That Precedes the Storm?

June 2021
It seems that the government has enough instruments to maintain key economic variables under control until the elections.  The official exchange rate should be manageable and avoid a steep devaluation, the government should be able to rollover the domestic debt, inflation could remain within predictable bounds ...

In Search of a Program: Hope in Paris, Not So Much in Buenos Aires

May 2021
Who is in command? This is a critical question when it comes to economic policies.  Minister Guzman is formally the Minister of Economy, but he seems to be primarily in charge of managing debt and the relationship with multilateral organizations.  This is a good start, because a potential IMF agreement wil...

Inflation rose in March, but the economy will still muddle through until the elections

April 2021
It is increasingly clear that the government is taking every economic decision with an eye on the election and that the 4.8% March inflation rate was a disruptive figure and a potential threat.  It was totally unexpected, much higher than anyone was projecting. This jeopardized the strategy of avoiding disrupti...

The efforts to avoid adjustment might work until the elections, and then what?

March 2021
The current economic situation raises two important questions. Firstly, can the government continue to muddle through until the October elections as it did in recent months? In other words, can it keep inflation under control, avoid a new acceleration of the parallel exchange rates and maintain the current growth mo...

Recent Economic Developments: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

February 2021
The recent news on the economic front has been overall good. The recovery remains on track in line with the normalization of mobility indicators and a gradual reopening of different business that were affected by Covid-19. The parallel exchange rates remain calm, interest rates have stayed relative stable despi...

External Tailwind, Intervention, and the IMF: An Impossible Trinity

January 2021
What a difference a month can make: The game changer has been the rapid and significant increase in the price of soybean, which now stands at around 506 dollars a ton, roughly 50% higher than a year ago.  This jump in the price has suddenly soothed the concerns about a continuous drop in reserves and about a st...

The Spring Brought Some Oxygen, but a Hot Summer is Ahead

December 2020
The 2021 midterm elections are starting to affect day to day decisions and can have an impact on the economic develo pments.  The starting point is worrisome for the government because the poverty levels exceed 40% and there are no signs that they are receding, the economic recovery is losing steam and there is...