Monthly

Monthly Reports

The pros and cons of changing the inflation targets

January 2018
December was a hectic month for Macri’s administration, with relevant news in the economic, social and political fronts. On the one hand, the Government succeeded in passing the 2018 Budget, the tax reform and the Pension Reform in the Lower House. Although it was finally approved, the Pension Reform has drawn criti...

A quick look at Macri´s first two years and what comes next

October 2017
September brought good news regarding economic recovery: the INDEC published the GDP figures for Q2 of 2017, which reflected the steady progress of economic activity again (0.7% q/q s.a. and 2.7% y/y). Unlike the demand’s behavior over the last few years of growth, this time investment led the recovery. However, wa...

Is Argentina facing a turn in the political cycle?

September 2017
The first half of August was marked by the primary elections, which resulted in a victory of the official party “Cambiemos” at the national level. In the Province of Buenos Aires, the final scrutiny threw Cristina Kirchner as the winner by a very small margin. However, recent polls indicate that Esteban Bullrich, th...

Medium term economic scenarios after the elections

August 2017
The results of last Sunday’s primaries were music to the ears for Cambiemos, as Macri´s coalition won comfortably in three of the main districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Mendoza) and probably lost by a very small margin in the other two (in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe). In addition, it a...

The exchange rate: Damn if it depreciates, damn if it doesn't

July 2017
The mystery was finally unveiled; Cristina is running for Senator in the province of Buenos Aires. This makes the race particularly important, and it will definitely catch the attention of most observers with an eye on the 2019 presidential election. If Cristina comes first, there will be questions about a potential...

Some mildly positive news in the economic front ... at last!

June 2017
There is big excitement in the countdown to June 24th, which is the deadline to present the nominees for the mid-term elections. The biggest question was whether Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be running for a seat in the Senate of the province of Buenos Aires. If she does it will be the battle between the old ...

The cursed trilogy: Inflation, exchange rate & interest rate

April 2017
The government in recent weeks partly recovered politically from the big difficulties it suffered in February, when Macri’s positive image dropped 10 percentage points and the government looked disoriented and made numerous mistakes. Throughout the last month and a half the government appeared to be on the defensiv...