Por Miguel A. Kiguel
Todos sabemos cómo funciona el cepo, y hemos aprendido a vivir con tasas de interés reales negativas, a usar el dólar Contado con Liqui para eludir los controles...
Argentina´s Economic Outlook 1Q 2012
Quarterly Reports |
Back to
Back to :
Argentina´s Economic Outlook 1Q 2012
First quarter
2012
Since March there has been a sharp deterioration in economic and financial conditions that have led to a large increase in the parallel exchange rates and in the Argentine credit spreads, to higher fiscal deficits at the national and provincial levels and to a sharp deceleration in economic activity that is likely to end in a recession.
Recent policy decisions (namely the tight foreign exchange and import controls and the nationalization of YPF) are rapidly eroding investors confidence and are the main reason for the increase in the parallel exchange rate and the Argentine credit default swap that now exceeds 1400 bps.
As Argentina does not have a problem in the stocks (i.e. in international reserves, debt or in the banking system), the economy does not have an obvious trigger for a financial crisis. The largest vulnerability is in the exchange rate front.
The largest risk is stagflation, namely a “real economy crisis” as opposed to a “financial crisis”. The spread in the parallel exchange rate is a leading indicator of problems regarding inflation and growth.
Other Reports that may be of interest
 |
 As expected, the Fund's Board of Directors approved the review of Argentina's program, although it made it clear that Massa failed to meet all goals. The IMF applauds the fiscal effort promised by... |