Por Miguel A. Kiguel
Todos sabemos cómo funciona el cepo, y hemos aprendido a vivir con tasas de interés reales negativas, a usar el dólar Contado con Liqui para eludir los controles...
What is behind the increase of external deficit?
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What is behind the increase of external deficit?
Second week
January 2018
External deficit has grown substantially over the last few years. In 2017 it will be closer to 4.6% of GDP and it is possible that it will even be somewhat higher this year. There are three direct causes behind this deterioration: the drop in exports prices, the fewer exports to Brazil due to the crisis it experienced in 2015-16 and the increase in outbound tourism.
The two first causes, which are the most important, were due to “external shocks” and are therefore beyond the scope of economic policy. The real exchange rate in itself, often times considered the cause of the deterioration in external accounts, had nothing to do with it. The higher external deficit is not related to higher imports either, nor to higher interest payments of debt, nor to higher profit transfers after the “cepo” was lifted. The total rent payments are quite similar, and imports are even lower.
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