Por Miguel A. Kiguel
Todos sabemos cómo funciona el cepo, y hemos aprendido a vivir con tasas de interés reales negativas, a usar el dólar Contado con Liqui para eludir los controles...
Investment lead the GDP growth
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Investment lead the GDP growth
First week
August 2017
Investment is currently growing close to an annual rate of 15%, with construction leading the expansion at 20%. Investment is the component of the aggregate demand that is growing faster. It is a significant rise that will enable to increase this year’s investment rate to over 16% of GDP, above the levels recorded during the “cepo” and the 15% it averaged over the last two years.
An investment rate of 15% of GDP is hardly enough to rebuild the depreciation of capital, that is, it does not enable production to increase on the long run. In order to grow at a steady 3% or 4% annual rate, the investment rate must continue increasing until it represents at least 20% of GDP. For this, physical investment must maintain its two-digit annual growth rates during the following years. If investment averaged an annual growth of 10% over the next few years, the investment rate would reach 20% of GDP towards 2021, surpassing the historical peak of 19.5% in 2007.
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