Halcones y palomas revolotean sobre la Reserva Federal

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Hawks and doves swirling around the Federal Reserve

Fourth week
November 2018

The events on the international scene are providing arguments for the Federal Reserve to perform a smaller rise of rates in 2019. In their September meeting, the US Central Bank published their latest “dot plot”, an internal survey of members in which 3 increases of rates were foreseen for next year. Currently, the Fed Funds futures market discounts only two “certain” movements and a slight chance of a third one. In our opinion, the Fed will indeed take a less tight position than in 2019. If this assumption is confirmed, we would be facing a more benign scenario for emerging countries.