The Drought Is Complicating FX Policy

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The Drought Is Complicating FX Policy

First week
March 2023

The drought is turning out to be much worse than the most pessimistic forecasts from a few weeks ago. Today the scenario where Argentina harvests less than 30 million tons of soybeans and less than 40 million tons of corn has a high probability. The loss of exports from the oilseed cereal complex can reach 18 billion dollars, which also implies around 5 billion less in export taxes.