Por Miguel A. Kiguel
Todos sabemos cómo funciona el cepo, y hemos aprendido a vivir con tasas de interés reales negativas, a usar el dólar Contado con Liqui para eludir los controles...
Can Argentina End Up In Another Debt Restructuration?
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Can Argentina End Up In Another Debt Restructuration?
Second week
March 2021
With Argentine bond yields approaching 20% a year, some begin to wonder if Argentina will have to restructure its debt again, despite the fact that the agreement with bondholders was closed just six months ago. There is no single answer, but common sense says that Argentina is unlikely to be forced to renegotiate its liabilities (beyond the IMF) before 2024 or 2025, since the maturities in foreign currency are simply negligible. And even so, the maturities with the foreign currency market are 3 billion dollars in 2024 and slightly more than 6 billion in 2025 and 2026, that is, 1.5% of current GDP. It is difficult to think of a default unless one has a very negative scenario in mind.
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