El programa financiero 2019-20 es demasiado conservador
The 2019-20 financial program is too conservative
The Government published its updated financial program for 2019 and 2020 last week, from which we infer that financing needs are almost completely covered. However, those estimations are based on two extremely conservative assumptions: that this year only 46% of the existing stock of bills in dollars and in pesos will be renewed, and that there is no debt issue in the markets. If these strict assumptions are slightly relaxed, then there is no doubt about the National Government’s ability to cover its financial needs in 2019-20 and the very concrete possibility of starting 2021 in a financial position better than the one foreseen in the program.