Por Miguel A. Kiguel
Todos sabemos cómo funciona el cepo, y hemos aprendido a vivir con tasas de interés reales negativas, a usar el dólar Contado con Liqui para eludir los controles...
Twice Monthly November 29th, 2017
Midweek
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Twice Monthly November 29th, 2017
The Central Bank (CB) Governor Mr Sturzenegger confirmed that interest rates will remain high until next April in order to trim the core inflation down to the 1% monthly area. This tight money trend is also expected to mitigate the impact of currently undergoing hikes in utilities rates. We keep unchanged our forecast for the monetary policy rate (the midpoint in the Central Bank repo corridor) to stay at 28.75% until March 2018 and from then on we foresee the CB would cut interest rates up to 18.75% by the end of 2018. The Lebacs yields will mimic the movement and will go down in tandem. If the cuts are confirmed the ex-ante real interest rate will be positive by nearly 5 percentage points as we estimate inflation in 2019 to approach 13%.
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