Monthly

Informes Mensuales

A better economic outlook in a more complex political environment

Octubre 2012
There are clear signs that economic activity has reached a floor, that July marked a turning point and that the economy is undergoing an anemic recovery. Most likely growth will remain well below the 3.26% rate which is the trigger for the payment of the GDP warrant next year, but nevertheless we have revised ...

Mid-term macro assessment: Goodbye growth, hello stagflation

Julio 2012
During the first semester there has been a sharp deterioration in the overall macroeconomic performance. While external factors have played a role, most of the explanation lies on domestic economic conditions and policies. The most recent figures show a drop in industrial production, investment, construction, ...

Everything you need to know about the parallel exchange rate

Junio 2012
The depreciation of the parallel exchange rate is taking center stage and is raising questions about what does it mean, whether it is sustainable at these levels and about the implications that it has for inflation, interest rates, growth and imports. More importantly, it also raises questions about what polic...

The economy after the YPF nationalization: the good, the bad and the ugly

Mayo 2012
Is the expropriation of YPF a surprise or is part of a pattern? A little bit of both. It is in line with other extemporaneous decisions such as the introduction of the variable export taxes, the nationalization of the pension funds, the use of reserves to pay the debt, and the strict introduction of import and forei...

Argenzuela?

Abril 2012
There have been signs in recent months of a marked deterioration in the business environment, as the Government has been broadening the use of foreign exchange and import controls and has open the possibility of intervening or nationalizing YPF. It all started last October in response to pressures on the peso, ...

A new look at the deterioration of the external accounts

Marzo 2012
The external accounts surplus and the resulting accumulation of international reserves have been key pillars of macroeconomic stability in Argentina in recent years. Last year, for the first time in the Kirchner’s era, international reserves fell by around US$ 6 billion, and this reduction took place in ...