The economic challenges in the new political environment

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The economic challenges in the new political environment

Noviembre 2010

The sudden death of Nestor Kirchner could be seen as black swan (a low probability event with large effects) creates a new scenario for next year presidential elections and opens difficult questions about whether and how Cristina’s government will tackle the main economic issues during the next twelve months.

The market’s initial reaction was positive, as stocks rallied and the Argentine CDS tightened by 115 basis points to 625. In our view, this initial improvement was based on the assumption that either Cristina would not run in next year’s presidential elections or that if she were to run and win, that there would be changes in economic policies towards a more moderate stance.