Chaco and New York: An explosive cocktail

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Chaco and New York: An explosive cocktail

Noviembre 2012

Argentina has done it once more, and the financial markets are desperately looking for answers. Uncertainty is the name of the game. First, the province of Chaco made a payment in pesos of a dollar denominated bond, while just three weeks later a New York Court of Appeals released a decision that represented a setback for Argentina and that raised fears of a possible technical default.

The Argentine five year CDS increased from 900 bps to around 2000 bps in a matter of days, investors are now trying to figure out what is worse: whether the risk of pesification under Argentina law or the risk of a technical default under New York law.