Las políticas económicas de Massa y Milei
Third week
Comparamos la mirada fiscal, monetaria, cambiaria y de otras políticas económicas de cada candidato.
Weekly
Weekly Reports
There Is No Promised Land Without a Season in the Desert
Second week
The Argentine economy accumulates many important problems. It has negative net reserves, Soviet exchange restrictions, an overappreciated exchange rate, 12 months without growth, inflation that has a floor of 180% for this year, and more than 40% of people are below the poverty line. There will be a primary fiscal d...
A Model With Holes Everywhere
First week
October's preliminary numbers likely tell the story of a slowdown in prices. Inflation has probably moved between 9 and 10%. In the last quarter, prices rose around 38-39% while the exchange rate rose 26.5%, which marks an important real appreciation.
The Need for Structural Reforms
Fourth week
The scenarios are becoming somewhat clearer. Philosophically there is a ruling party embodied in Sergio Massa, who if he wins will have to take charge of the disorders of recent years. Milei and his new alliances probably materialize the hypothesis of a “herbivorous lion”. Although the market's preferred option was ...
Elecciones con mucho en juego
Third week
Todas las elecciones presidenciales son vistas como muy importantes, pero esta da la sensación de ser doblemente importante. La Argentina está en una situación límite con una inflación que amenaza con llegar a 200% para fin de año, 12 años de estancamiento, 14 años seguidos de déficit fiscal primario y una situación...
900 razones para la huida del peso
First week
El gobierno sigue sin generar nada de confianza. Insiste con los parches que tienen rendimientos decrecientes. Dólar Vaca Muerta, dólar pyme y ahora quizás dólar auto. Desde algunos rincones del oficialismo dicen que el año que viene tendrán superávit primario al tiempo que bajan impuestos sin ninguna lógica y con e...
Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded?
Fifth week
Everything indicates that we are going to have a turbulent December. Memories of other turbulent summers intensify, such as February 1989, which marked the beginning of hyperinflation, or December 2001, when the most traumatic crisis in our history began. In this context, questions are intensifying regarding what ma...
Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones?
Fourth week
With each passing week the feeling that the Argentine economy is approaching the one we experienced in the eighties cannot be avoided. It does not mean that the situation will be exactly the same nor that hyperinflation cannot be avoided. In fact, we fervently believe that an event of such magnitude can be avoided.
Income Tax in the Upside Down
Second week
Argentina’s terrible application of the personal income tax is impressive. Last week it was YPF employees and now Massa is doubling the bet with a proposal to eliminate the income tax. This makes no sense from an economic point of view and is absolutely regressive.
The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse
Second week
We don't know who is going to win the elections. But we do know that the legacy of problems for the next government has not stopped getting worse in recent weeks. This week's measures are more fuel for the fire. The fiscal deficit will be larger than expected and to make matters worse it will generate false rights f...
